Black Swan Hamas: Why Israel was Baited Into Defeat and America Baited into Hazard in the Middle East

Israel has not yet come to terms with the magnitude of defeat it has been suffering since October 7, 2023. Americans have not yet fully comprehended the Black Swan Event that occurred on October 7, 2023, in Gaza and Israel. How could rockets powered by oxidized table sugar change the course of history? Who planned the multi-phased attack by Hamas? How is this attack related to the assassination of Qasem Soleimani and the Syrian Civil War? What were the main goals that this attack aimed to achieve? Have these goals been achieved? This analysis explains how these goals have been achieved in a momentous way.

Men are excessively ruthless and cruel not as a rule out of avowed malice but from outraged righteousness. How much more is this true of legally constituted states, invested with all the seeming moral authority of parliaments and congresses and courts of justice! The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however, well-intentioned, almost limitless. (Emphasis mine).

Paul Johnson in Modern Times: The World from the Twenties to the Nineties (page 14, 1983).

(Americans) did us a favor…to take (out) Saddam Hussein that we (Iranian Government) wanted to do. So, you were sacrificing your own (American) soldiers for our (Iranian) aim.

Hossein Sheikholeslam. How Iran Defeated the America-Israel-Saudi Alliance in the Middle East.
SoI War Gnosophia org
Israeli soldiers in the Gaza Strip with their Carpet Mine-Clearing System, Puma armored engineering vehicle (in the right background), Merkava 4 tanks, D9 Caterpillar (in the left background), and Namer armored personnel carrier (in the foreground). CREDIT: Wikimedia.

Hamas is the sharpened arrowhead and Palestinians are the cannon fodder. At the same time, Americans, Israelis, and Gulf Arabs are the principal targets of recent attacks by Hamas and the Shia Expeditionary Force that serves as the principal proxy of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). There is a brilliant strategy behind the Hamas raids against Israel on October 7, 2023. The brilliance of this strategy lies in the tactics and geopolitical schemes applied to achieve the key objectives of militarily defeating Israel, politically delegitimatizing the Arab monarchies, discrediting the American foreign policy, and weakening the unipolar American order by weaponizing the East-West ideological divide, even if it means weaponizing the narrative of the Global Billion versus the Global South (or rest of the Globe).

Additionally, the attacks against Israel have reduced the collective attention that American and European governments paid to the war in Ukraine, even diverting some of the military aid originally destined for Ukraine to Israel. For Iran and its Shiite Expeditionary Force, their goal of defeating the Iron Dome will likely be realized, and when the Israeli heartland is battered with sophisticated smart missiles, dual-Israeli citizens will likely flee Israel. Because most of these dual citizens are young, educated, and economically productive, the effect will be that Israel will lose on-the-ground technical expertise and economic potential when its military needs them to sustain a war. In other words, the concerted military campaign against Israel is planned as a war of attrition that disadvantages Israelis as they have a relatively low population, besides limiting their potential to serve as defenders of Saudi Arabia whose rulers fear Iran and are anxious about America pivoting away from the region in its grand geopolitical drive dubbed Pivot to Asia (with Asia meaning North-East Asia where its principal geostrategic rival, China [and its Russian ally] is located).

Despite their haughtiness and claims of expertise, the so-called counter-terrorism experts have been exposed as developers of vacuous counter-terrorism strategies. In fact, the American grand counter-terrorism strategy can be judged as failed and disastrous to the nation-states that adopted and/or implemented it e.g Israel, Kenya, and Afghanistan. Like Afghanis and Kenyans, Israelis are now bearing the brunt of the failed American global war against Islamist terrorism.

The strategists behind this latest round of attacks against Israelis – and Jews in general – also aimed to fracture the twin foundations of post-1945 Jewish survival – armed ethnonationalism in Israel and safety in diversity in the United States of America (USA) and Western Europe. The strategists also planned to drive a divide between Israel and its neighboring Sunni-majority nations, while driving Jewish activists to lead a global campaign against Sunni Islamism that has mostly tormented Iran and its allies in Iraq and Syria. Basically, Jewish activists are using their own resources and initiative to indirectly fight Iran’s war and weaken the regional enemies of Iran.

So, who created this brilliant strategy? The surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, by Hamas was a black swan event that changed the future of the region. Did these strategists plan this black swan event or did they just help Hamas gain military skills and weapons and then left Hamas planners to independently plot the attack? What inspired this attack by Hamas?

The Black Swan Event

30th March 1972 was a momentous day as it marked the launch of an offensive by the North Vietnamese Army (NVA) towards Saigon in South Vietnam in a popular effort to reunite Vietnam under the banner of the yellow monostar of Communism. This offensive commenced with the crossing of the demilitarized zone separating North Vietnam and South Vietnam, and it marked the beginning of the defeat of American military power in Southeast Asia as all American allies – with the exception of the Government of Thailand – were overthrown by Communist armies that were either directly backed by the North Vietnamese Government or indirectly armed by the NVA.

Saigon fell to the NVA in April 1975 with Americans completing the aerial evacuation of Americans and a few thousand South Vietnamese refugees on April 30, 1975. The fall of Saigon to the NVA marked the death of the short-lived, American-supported Republic of Vietnam.

Saigon Gnosophia org
Evacuees trying to get into an Air America helicopter on April 29, 1975, a day before the Viet Cong and NVA deposed the American-allied South Vietnamese government and reunited Vietnam under the communist banner. CREDIT: Wikimedia.

The United States Government (USG) was unable to protect its ally – the Khmer Republic – from being overrun in April 1975 by the NVA-backed Khmer Rouge Army which went on to conduct the Cambodian Genocide. In Laos, the USG-allied royalist government of King Savang Vatthana was overthrown in 1975 by the NVA-armed (and sometimes NVA-led) Lao People’s Liberation Army (otherwise known as Pathet Lao).

In the United States, it was evident that the Vietnam War had polarized Americans to the extent that returning American soldiers were vilified. This development was aptly captured by the British musician, Paul Louis Hardcastle, in his hit song 19 when he stated “None of them (returning combat troops) received the hero’s welcome (in the USA)”. Even the communists were perplexed at how the Vietnam War had successfully polarized American politics into the radical left and radical right. It is this success that the planners of the Hamas attack on Israel envisioned replicating, thus revealing that it was not only Israelis who were the target of this attack but Americans also. The other target audiences for this attack are the Arabs residing in the Middle East and Egypt, as well as the Iranian youth who shouted “Death to Palestine” and “Long Live Israel” during their anti-theocracy protests in Iran in 2022.

The multi-phased Hamas attack of October 7 betrays a communist war strategy rather than an Arab-Jihadi war strategy, which explains why Al-Qaeda has been unable to replicate such coordinated attacks in other parts of the world, especially sub-Saharan Africa where the survival of incompetent governments is ensured by more incompetent armed forces. To deny that Hamas and Hezbollah war strategies are inspired by the Viet Cong and NVA war strategies is to deny an obvious fact. Which guerrillas used tunnels to defeat the combined military might of the Americans and the South Vietnamese army? Didn’t the Viet Cong pioneer the use of tunnels to smuggle weapons and launch raids? Do Hamas and Hezbollah use tunnels to smuggle weapons and launch raids? Was the Hamas attack on October 7 inspired by the Tet Offensive launched by the C10 battalion of the Vietcong?

Let us consider this multi-phased attack and then explain why it was a black swan event.

The Six Phases of the Hamas Attack

At 06:30 AM (Gaza Time) of October 7, 2023, Hamas launched the opening phase of the attack by launching a barrage of about 3000 missiles onto Israeli targets across the Gaza-Israel border fence. This barrage featured a wide array of rocket models, including the Iranian-made Fajr missiles and the locally-produced Qassam rockets. The Israeli Iron Dome missile defense system swung into action, intercepting about 60% of the missiles – a fact that pointed to a shortage of interceptor missiles in Israeli weapon stocks. Russians and Iranians knew that Israel had depleted some of its missile stocks after it sent caches of weapons to Ukraine and Azerbaijan. Besides, the thousands of missiles were intentionally launched by Hamas so as to overwhelm the Iron Dome system, and thus allow the second phase of the attack to commence.

The second phase occurred minutes after the missile barrage and featured an invasion of Israel by Hamas fighters using powered gliders – both motorized gliders and hand gliders. These fighters landed in Israeli territory and immediately secured the area adjacent to the fortified electronic wall that separates Gaza and Southern Israel. This set the stage for the third phase of the attack.

Operation Guardian of the Walls May 2021. XVIII Gnosophia org
Tamir interceptor missile launched by Iron Dome in May 2021. CREDIT: Wikimedia.

At around 07:30 AM, Hamas elite fighters blew up a section of the wall at Kerem Shalom near a border crossing station. This allowed for motorized raids against Israeli combat bases and settlements in Kerem Shalom near Southern Gaza. The motorized raids featured Hamas fighters on motorbikes and four-wheeled vehicles, along with bulldozers which were used to demolish part of the wall so as to allow the motorbikes and vehicles to move into Israel. A few minutes later, another contingent of Hamas fighters blew up a section of the wall near the Erez border crossing station in Northern Gaza and attacked adjacent Israeli combat bases and settlements. Just like the breach in Kerem Shalom, the breach in Erez was followed by a motorized raid featuring Hamas fighters on motorbikes, vehicles, and bulldozers. This third phase of the attack allowed the fourth phase to commence.

In the fourth phase of the attack, Hamas infantry attacked Israeli security personnel and civilians along a wide front stretching from Erez in the North to Kerem Shalom in the South. Among the Israeli towns and settlements attacked were Netiv Haasara, Erez, Kfar Aza, Kibbutz Ein HaShlosha, Nahal Oz, Kibbutz Bee’ri, Kibbutz Re’im, Kibbutz Sufa, Kibbutz Alumim, and Kerem Shalom. The towns of Sderot and Ofakim were also raided by Hamas infantry. When these raids were ongoing, the fifth phase of the attack was put into action.

In this phase, Hamas infantry reinforced with their elite fighters attacked the headquarters of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) – Southern Gaza Command. This attack featured jamming of IDF communications thus preventing Israeli soldiers from calling each other and their commanders so that they can organize a coordinated defensive maneuver. After the IDF Southern Gaza headquarters was overrun, the last phase of the attack could be executed.

The sixth phase of this attack involved moving hostages captured in Southern Israel into the Gaza Strip. By mid-morning of October 7, Israelis were shocked at how easily they had been outwitted and defeated by Hamas, with the Israeli government vowing revenge. What was perplexing to most Israelis was how their intelligence community, especially Mossad and Aman (military intelligence), failed to detect the planning of a large-scale attack, and how once the attack started, these two intelligence organizations seemed to be caught by surprise. How could Mossad and Aman fail to detect that more-than-usual quantities of sugar were being imported into Gaza? I mention sugar because it was the key ingredient used to create the propellant of the Qassam rockets that were fired into Israel.

How Sugar is Converted Into Rocket Fuel

How is Sugar turned into rocket fuel? The answer is quite simple. The sugar is first melted in a pot and then fertilizer (the favorite being potassium nitrate) is added to this melted sugar. The two are then mixed together. The resultant mixture is then poured into a mold and allowed to cool to form a solid propellant slug that can be placed into a round tube, usually a water pipe, that serves as the body of the rocket. In this propellant slug, the fertilizer acts as the oxidizing agent while the sugar acts as fuel.

The average Qassam rocket weighs about 90 Kilograms (Kgs) with an explosive payload of about 10Kgs. The payload is usually made of a mixture of urea nitrate and Trinitrotoluene (TNT), along with shrapnel to maximize the injuries the rocket can cause.

Flickr Israel Defense Forces Eight Qassam Launchers in Gaza Gnosophia org
Qassam rocket on a launcher. CREDIT: Wikimedia.

The average Qassam rocket costs US$600 to manufacture and deploy to the battlefield. On the other hand, the interceptor missile fired by the Iron Dome to intercept and destroy this rocket costs about US$50,000. So, to intercept 1800 missiles and rockets fired by Hamas, Israel spent approximately US$90 million. On the other hand, Hamas spent a maximum of US$ 3 million to attack Israel with about 3000 missiles and rockets (the Fajr Missile costs approximately US$1,000). This shows that Israelis spent 30 times more than Hamas in an effort to defend themselves against the missile barrage that saw over 30% of the missiles and rockets hitting their targets in Israel.

Viet Cong Strategy in Gaza

Hamas, and to a larger extent, al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, and Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS or Daesh) have taken inspiration from the Viet Cong when developing their war strategies. Both Hamas and Hezbollah copied the Viet Cong strategy of using tunnels to hide and move weapons, and al-Qaeda’s most erudite war strategist, the blonde Mustafa Setmariam Nasar (Abu Musab al-Suri) developed the concept of the long war from Veit Cong’s strategy of armed struggle against conventionally superior armed forces and governments.

To continue reading, subscribe here.

Discover more from Postmodern Christianity

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Discover more from Postmodern Christianity

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading